2013 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS

 

2013 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS

 

Goodbye 2012... here comes 2013! Enjoy the New Year in the spectacular pictures as countries across the globe celebrate BELOW 

OUR 2013 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS

HAPPY AND A PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR TO ALL

 

R.I.P.: GROUPON

It’s amazing to think that just two years ago, daily-deal pioneer Groupon was such a hot phenomenon that Google was ready to pay $6 billion in order to acquire it. It’s even more amazing, in retrospect, that Groupon said no. But hey, back then, we weren't all getting bombarded by emails from six different web sites offering us discounts on restaurants, pet care, and four-night trips for two to Belize. Nor had most mom and pop shops figured out that participating in a Groupon deal could end up losing them more money than the marketing boost could ever be worth. In 2012, inept management and an ever-shakier business model sent the company’s stock plunging to less than a fifth of its IPO price. With internet couponing clearly passe, their new big idea is to help companies sell marked down goods in bulk -- like a webbier T.J. Maxx ... or something. Bottom line: In 2013, Groupon expires for good.

 

OUR 2013 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS

THE FISCAL CLIFF DEAL DRAGS DOWN THE RECOVERY

Washington is entranced by the elaborate courtship ritual unfolding between President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner as the two attempt to consummate some sort of budget deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. As we all know from 2011’s debt ceiling fracas, there’s probably no amount of shrieking from the public or Wall St. that will make the two sides come to an agreement before the absolute last minute. But given the political pressures both sides face, it’s probably safe to bet they’ll strike an accord in time for New Year’s eve. Not that that's really a reason to celebrate. Remember, the two sides are trying to figure out how to simultaneously raise taxes and cut spending, both of which will chill the economy. Worst of all, almost nobody seems to be interested in extending the payroll tax cut, meaning middle class consumers and employers alike will be paying a bunch more to the IRS next year. As our own Matt O’Brien noted, that alone could cost the economy 500,000 jobs in 2013. Whatever gets born out of this negotiating process, it’s going to be ugly.

 

OUR 2013 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS

SQUARE CASHES IN (BY OBVIATING CASH)

By now, you’re probably at least somewhat familiar with Square, the mobile payment upstart and Silicon Valley darling known for its elegant hardware that turns any iPhone or iPad into a credit card reader. Well, in 2013, you’re going to get to know them a whole lot better as they push the United States down the road towards becoming a truly cashless society. The company scored an enormous coup this summer when Starbucks agreed to start using their system, which will one day let users pay for their Frappucinos just by walking up to the counter and saying their name. It also simplified the pricing plan it offers merchants to make it more appealing to small businesses. The Starbucks deal will introduce Square to millions more American users and entice large retailers to adopt it as well, making it the hottest tech company of the year.

 

 

OUR 2013 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS

CHINA MUDDLES ALONG

China’s economy slowed down in 2012, much to the whole world's consternation. In 2013, it will bounce back, but not dramatically, as corruption, pollution, a growing reliance on energy imports, and weak demand for its exports from ailing Europe will all continue to take a toll. Nonetheless, government stimulus efforts, sudden development of the Western provinces surrounding Chengdu (known traditionally more as the capital of Szechuan cooking than as an industrial hub), and increasingly sophisticated manufacturing will help China avoid a devastating hard landing. That housing bubble we all keep hearing about? Not going to pop, at least yet. Because of limits on the types of investments permitted, the country’s emerging middle class simply has nowhere else to put its money. The days of double digit growth are officially over in the Middle Kingdom, but don’t bet on any looming disasters either.

 

OUR 2013 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS

EUROPE MUDDLES ALONG, TOO

This year, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi managed to quell the financial panic that looked just about ready to engulf the entire euro zone when he finally stepped up and promised to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the monetary union. There’s just one problem: Europe’s most troubled debtors -- Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal especially -- are all still stuck doing penance for their alleged profligacy via German-approved austerity programs. As a result, Europe’s looking at a year of economic contraction, and perhaps more trouble in the more distant future, as growth in the periphery fails to outpace those countries’ prodigious debts. Europe won’t be in crisis mode during 2013, but it won’t get back to health either.

 

OUR 2013 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS

IRAN'S ECONOMY CRUMBLES

The U.S. sanctions on Iran have virtually cut it off from the world’s financial system, so much so that it’s been forced to barter oil for basic goods like rice while watching its currency crumble faster than Mark Sanchez’s quarterbacking career. This year, the sanctions are set to tighten even further, but that doesn't mean Iran’s leadership will capitulate on its nuclear program. We’ll wager that it fails to come to an accord with the United States, and the wheels finally come off the domestic economy completely, leading to mass social unrest and protests that end in another brutal government crackdown. The regime survives in even more tattered shape, pumping and trading just enough oil to maintain its grip.

 

OUR 2013 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS

APPLE TV DEBUTS IN Q4...AND DISAPPOINTS

Apple will continue to be handsomely profitable, but the reality will soon sink in that the company won’t be able to sue its biggest competitor, Samsung, out of the market in either the United States or China. As smartphones and tablets become commodities, the company will come under pressure from super-fans and investors to finally take a home-run swing at America’s living rooms and release the Apple TV in the last quarter of 2013 (earlier than originally anticipated). But because CEO Tim Cook -- ever the operations guy at heart -- lacks Steve Jobs’ uncompromising perfectionism and eye for detail, the final product will be merely very good, but not astonishing enough to redefine the market. After disappointing initial sales, they’ll ultimately attempt to give the product a boost by moving its manufacturing to a brand new Foxconn plant in Texas.

 

OUR 2013 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS

THE NEXT LOBBYING WAR: NATURAL GAS EXPORTS

With natural gas prices at historic lows thanks to America’s extraordinary fracking boom, U.S. energy companies have been pushing Washington for permission to start exporting the stuff overseas. This month, the Energy Department released a massive study concluding that doing so would ultimately give the economy a small boost, even if it pushed up gas prices slightly here at home. So get ready for an epic legislative battle in 2013, as a surprising union forms between manufacturers/chemical companies (who like to keep natural gas prices as cheap as possible) and environmentalists (who want to limit fracking and greenhouse gasses) to lobby Congress against exports. Will it work? Call me skeptical. But one thing's for sure: it'll be a powerful economic stimulus for DC’s big lobbying firms.

 

OUR 2013 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS

ED DEMARCO GETS SACKED

Liberals have longed to see the White House give Ed DeMarco the boot from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. As the acting head of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s federal overseer, he’s staunchly opposed letting the mortgage giants help troubled borrowers stay in their homes by forgiving portions of the principal on their debt. This year, Obama’s base will finally get its wish, as the White House uses a recess appointment to place someone more amenable to its agenda atop the agency. Strapped homeowners won’t get relief immediately, but when they do, it will result in a small stimulus for the wider economy. In the meantime, the housing market will continue along the slow but steady recovery that’s already underway.

 

OUR 2013 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS

JUNK BONDS SEED THE NEXT CRISIS

With interest rates stuck near zero thanks to the Federal Reserve efforts to jumpstart the economy, investors have started plunking their money into riskier and riskier assets in the hope of finding better returns. In many cases, that’s meant junk bonds -- high-interest debt issued by less-than-credit-worthy companies. Junk bonds went out of fashion after they went bust in the 1980s, but companies have issued hundreds of billions of dollars worth this year. In 2013, the market will keep charging ahead, as more desperate investors go chasing after higher yields, sowing the seeds for the next big crisis as soon as we hit another recession, and dicey companies start defaulting. You heard it here first folks.

Economic misery looks set to continue in the eurozone after the European Central Bank slashed forecasts for 2013. Its latest predictions signal a probable contraction next year before a return to growth in 2014. The ECB cut its estimate of gross domestic product for 2013 to between - 0.9 per cent and 0.3 per cent. Gloom: ECB is under pressure to cut interest rates further to stimulate growth It previously forecast -0.4 per cent to 1.4 per cent, suggesting the economy was more likely to grow than contract. The bank also cut its forecast slightly for 2012, giving a mid-point of -0.5 per cent compared to -0.4 per cent three months ago. 'Economic weakness in the eurozone is expected to extend into next year,' said ECB president Mario Draghi. 'A gradual recovery should start later in 2013.' In its first predictions for 2014, the ECB staff forecast GDP growth of 0.2 to 2.2 per cent. The ECB is under pressure to cut interest rates further to stimulate growth, but froze them today at a record low of 0.75 per cent. Meanwhile, Draghi said negative deposit rates were discussed at the latest meeting, but no action was taken. Creating negative deposit rates - effectively charging depositor banks rather than paying them interest - is a way of forcing banks to put their money to work elsewhere. Mario Draghi: Negative deposit rates were discussed at the meeting - effectively charging depositor banks rather than paying them interest 'There is no news there ... we are operationally ready, but the discussion didn't go into any depth with respect to this point,' Draghi said at a news conference. 'We briefly touched upon the complexities that such a measure would involve and possible unintended consequences, but we didn't elaborate any further.' Research released yesterday pointed to a prolonged recession in the crisis-torn eurozone. Research group Markit said its index of business activity in the 17-nation region rose from a 40-month low of 45.7 in October to 46.5 in November. But it marked a tenth month in a row below the crucial 50 level which represents the cut-off between boom and bust. Ireland was the only country in the eurozone to grow in November. Output in Germany was down slightly but there was a sharp drop in Spain, Italy and France. Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: ‘France, Spain and Italy continue to see strong contractions while a milder downturn is evident in Germany. The region looks set for further contraction in the early months of 2013 as weak consumer demand in many countries combines with low levels of business confidence and falling global trade.’ The eurozone economy has not grown since the third quarter of 2011 when output increased by 0.1 per cent. It shrank 0.3 per cent in the final three months of 2011 before a flat first quarter of 2012 was followed by contractions of 0.2 per cent and 0.1 per cent in the second and third quarters respectively. Unemployment in the eurozone hit a record high of 11.7 per cent in October – leaving 18.7million out of work including 3.6million under 25s. Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight said: 'The ECB appears to have the door open for an interest rate cut, and we expect it to step through early in 2013. 'With the eurozone clearly facing a difficult fourth quarter and beyond after moving into modest recession in the third quarter, and with the underlying inflation situation in theeEurozone looking relatively benign, we believe that the ECB has ample justification and scope to take interest rates down from 0.75 per cent to 0.50 per cent sooner rather than later.' Green rules coming from the EU threaten to plunge Britain into 1970s-style blackouts in three years and lead to energy bills doubling. Millions could be pushed into fuel poverty – having to choose between heating or eating – because Brussels diktats are closing power stations needlessly, the Government’s energy regulator warned yesterday. The plants that remain in Britain will not be able to keep up with demand by winter 2015, a dire report from Ofgem predicted. Didcot power station: The station will close in 2013, further reducing the UK's power independence The chance of blackouts, similar to those seen during the three-day week crisis of the 1970s, is currently rated as one in 3,300 by the energy regulator. But it could drop to as low as one in 12 over the next three years, Ofgem said. The UK’s spare generating capacity, currently 14 per cent, could drop to 4 per cent or even shrink to nothing at the same time, it warned. The ‘alarming’ findings have left senior figures in the energy industry desperately worried, sources say, as the vast scale of the challenges facing the UK’s energy future becomes clear. If the report’s predictions come true, Britain could be left dependent on an unreliable undersea cable line with France for its emergency energy supply. National Grid and the Government could order mothballed generating plants to fire up again to plug the energy gap. The battle to keep the lights on could then become a stand-off between British ministers trying to keep the country running and European bureaucrats trying to enforce rulings on the UK. Ofgem said the UK faced ‘an unprecedented combination of the global financial crisis, tough environmental targets and the closure of ageing power stations that would increase the risk to consumers’ energy supplies and could lead to higher bills’. 'ACTION IS NEEDED TO SECURE OUR SUPPLY' Audrey Gallacher, director of Energy at Consumer Focus, said: 'While there is enough generation capacity to mean that widespread power-cuts are still unlikely, narrower margins mean the risks of outages are higher and scarcity of energy could also feed into possible price rises in future. 'Consumers need protection from price spikes as well as power cuts. ‘Action is needed to guarantee the secure energy supply the UK has enjoyed for decades. 'It is right that we close our oldest and most polluting energy plants, but it is essential that new initiatives deliver investment in alternative energy generation to meet this gap. 'At the same time however consumers cannot write a blank cheque to cover the costs of new energy. To avoid this happening the Government and regulator must ensure that the costs passed onto consumers are fully transparent and rigorously scrutinized. 'We also need to see energy efficiency programes being delivered as widely and effectively as possible. Making our housing stock more energy efficient not only cuts demand and provides a greater margin with our supply – it also provides much-needed reductions in consumers' bills.' The report warned that there ‘will be a significant reduction in electricity supplies from coal and oil plants over the period, primarily driven by closures required by European environmental legislation’. It added: ‘The risk of electricity shortfalls is expected to be highest at the end of the period, in 2015-16 and 2016-17.’ The most damaging piece of EU ‘green tape’, industry insiders say, is a 2001 measure designed to limit emissions for older power stations. The Large Combustion Plant Directive forces all coal or oil-fired power plants built before 1987 to install expensive emissions-reducing equipment or face closure by 2015. It was spawned out of the Brussels obsession with weaning all European countries off coal power. But because of Britain’s rich mining heritage, it is a measure that hits the UK harder than any other EU member.  Nine of the UK’s coal and oil-fired power stations are destined to shut by 2015. This represents about 15 per cent of the UK’s total generating capacity. This would leave Britain dependent on imported gas – which comes with a notoriously volatile price tag. Dark future: Ofgem warned that due to the new EU rules closing power stations Britain may have to face 1970s blackouts by 2015. Respected energy analyst Peter Atherton said: ‘What’s difficult now is that there is legislation in place that will shut down plants deliberately. There are very good plants that are being ordered to shut before they should. The rest of the coal fleet is under a sentence of death.’ At the moment market energy prices are about £50 per megawatt hour – the unit used to measure power. Mr Atherton said prices could ‘easily’ hit £100 per megawatt hour in 2015. Energy Secretary Ed Davey said the Government would respond to the report before the end of the year. He said: ‘Security of electricity supply is of critical importance to the health of the economy and the smooth functioning of our daily lives.’ Consumer groups called on the Government to protect homeowners from ever-rising bills. Richard Lloyd, director of consumer group Which?, said: ‘It’s alarming to hear Ofgem predicting that we could be relying more on imported gas in a matter of years which could mean further price rises for hard-pressed consumers.’ ÷ Britons are among the world’s biggest climate change sceptics, a poll found. Only 63 per cent believe global warming has been scientifically proven, according to the survey of 13 countries for insurance firm Axa. Only Japan had more dissent. ANALYSIS, by ALEX BRUMMER, CITY EDITOR The stark warning that  the lights in Britain could go out within three years, as  a result of the country’s  mad dash towards a greener energy policy, is a terrible indictment of the prevarication  and zigzags of government policy  on energy. Warnings that Britain’s energy supplies were on a knife-edge were frequent during Labour’s 13 years in office, but it was not until the dying months of Gordon Brown’s administration that Downing Street finally committed to new nuclear. And while the dithering went on, the European Union continually tightened environmental standards, further undermining Britain’s energy security. The coal-fired power station at Drax, North Yorkshire, will have to come off line, but plans to replace it with biomass or cleaner coal have failed to come to fruition and new nuclear is still on the drawing board. As for wind-power and coastal energy turbines, so favoured by the Coalition when it came to office, the generous subsidies are being removed making it a much less attractive investment for the big six energy companies. Meanwhile, so far the Coalition has failed to come up with a pricing policy that makes development of a new generation of nuclear power stations sufficiently attractive to the foreign investors on whom the UK is relying. Now, Energy Secretary Ed Davey’s new ‘dash for gas’ is expected to be at the centre of the Energy Bill due before the Commons shortly. But experts point out that some of the UK’s mothballed gas power stations could take years to come back on line and new capacity will take upwards of four years to build. Most worrying of all, by placing so much emphasis on gas Britain exposes itself to the vicissitudes of the global energy market. British-owned Centrica has taken a number of steps to secure gas supplies through the Norwegian Langeled gas pipeline and by securing long-term  liquid natural gas contracts with  Qatar – a Middle East ally with some  of the largest natural gas reserves in the world. But as the UK has found in the  past, when Russia closed off gas  pipelines through Ukraine, power  supplies are at the mercy of events beyond our control. Unlike other trading nations, such as Holland, the UK has failed to build sufficient storage capacity to see us through a prolonged geo-political crisis. The most positive thing that can be said of the warning from Ofgem is that it may finally galvanise Whitehall and a fractured government into action. Big global power companies such as Electricite de France, which owns British Energy’s nuclear stations, will have  to be offered a firm promise of a generous base price if new nuclear is finally to go ahead. But it could be at least a decade  before that power comes on stream.  If the interim solution is more gas,  consumers will once again find  themselves at the mercy of market prices. In recent times wholesale gas  prices have started to come down because of new American extraction techniques known as ‘fracking’. This  has made the US almost self-sufficient. That ought to make gas supplies more plentiful. But relying on imported energy, at a time when the Middle East is in flames, can hardly be regarded as looking after the nation’s economic or national security.

The earnings for the average household are set to drop by 7.4 per cent over just three years, according to one of Britain's most influential economic think tanks. The fall in 'real' earnings - after inflation - would be the second worst on record, behind the bitter financial pain of the mid-Seventies. The figure - calculated for the period between 2010 and 2013 - follows the announcement of more austerity measures announced by George Osborne in the Autumn Statement yesterday. George Osborne, giving his Autumn Statement yesterday, insisted striking public sector staff would simply have to accept reforms to make their pensions, which require an extra £10billion merely to stay afloat, 'affordable' The Institute for Fiscal Studies, which has a reputation for its rigorous post-Budget analyses, said that the median average income was now expected to be no higher in real terms in 2016 than it was in 2003. After Mr Osborne yesterday extended his austerity programme beyond the next election, the IFS said public spending is now expected to drop by 16.2 per cent in real terms over a seven-year squeeze lasting until 2017. 'We are running out of superlatives to describe just how extraordinary are some of these changes,' the think tank's director, Paul Johnson, told a press conference in London. Mr Johnson said the two-year one per cent pay cap for public sector workers for 2014 and 2015 - following a pay freeze - would effectively wipe out the average 'pay premium' enjoyed by men state workers over the private sector. But he added that the Government's public sector pension squeeze, which has led to strikes across the UK today, would still leave workers with 'substantially more generous' provision on average than in the private sector. The IFS said that per capita real household disposable income was set to be lower in 2016 than 2006. Mr Osborne defended his strategy as he visited Brussels for talks on the eurozone sovereign debt crisis with his EU counterparts today, insisting that cuts announced yesterday were designed to allow the Government to protect frontline services. 'We made a choice in this spending review to reduce some welfare entitlements, to cap housing benefits, in order to try and protect the NHS budget and to protect the schools budget,' the Chancellor told the BBC. 'There are choices you can make and we have made ours. I think if you look at the record of this Government, we haven't shied away from real decisions.' Mr Osborne said the Government's decision to cut spending and raise taxes had helped Britain avoid the problems seen in heavily-indebted eurozone countries such as Italy, which saw bond yields surge to almost 8 per cent yesterday. But he warned that a collapse in the single currency area could spill over and cause recession in the UK. 'If the eurozone goes into recession, into a deep recession, then I'm afraid Britain will find it difficult to avoid a recession itself,' he said. 'In a way, what's happening in the eurozone is a reminder to Britain that if you don't face up to your problems you have very much worse problems. Britain has taken decisive action, we now need the eurozone to do the same.' Grim figures in yesterday's economic and fiscal outlook from the Office for Budget Responsibility showed the Government is on track to borrow £111billion more by 2016 than had been expected as recently as March. Unemployment is due to peak at 8.7 per cent next year and GDP growth was downgraded for each of the four years to come. Mr Osborne responded by announcing a 1 per cent cap on public sector pay rises for each of the next two years, holding down tax credits and bringing forward the planned increase in the state pension age to 67 by eight years to 2026. At Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons, Labour leader Ed Miliband said that yesterday's statement was proof that the Government's economic strategy had failed. The £111 billion increase in borrowing came on top of more than £40 billion which Mr Osborne had already been forced to add to predictions he made last year, when he promised that the deficit would be eliminated before the 2015 election, said Mr Miliband. He told David Cameron: 'You are borrowing an extra £158 billion to pay for your economic failure. The truth is, your plan has failed. You refuse to change course and you are making working families pay the price. At the very least, we now know you will never, ever be able to say again "We are all in this together".' Mr Miliband said Mr Osborne's 'miserable deal' had sliced £1billion from tax credits, costing a family on the minimum wage a week-and-a-half's pay each year. OBR figures showed child poverty would increase and unemployment hit 2.8 million as a result of the Government's decisions, he said. 'You are another Conservative Prime Minister for whom unemployment is a price worth paying,' said Mr Miliband. But Mr Cameron insisted that his Government had a 'record to be proud of' on poverty, after raising more than a million low-paid workers out of income tax altogether. He told the Commons that the coalition would 'take the country through this storm', while Labour's policies would destroy market credibility and lead to rising interest rates. 'We are being tested by these difficult economic times,' Mr Cameron told MPs. 'We will meet that test by getting on top of our debt, getting on top of our deficit.' Yesterday the independent budget watchdog, meanwhile, warned that household incomes will plunge this year by an average of £923 – the worst slump since 1945 – and that pay rises will not significantly outpace spiralling inflation until 2014. Only those on out-of-work benefits will be shielded, after the Liberal Democrats won a bitter Cabinet battle to ensure the handouts are raised by 5.2 per cent, in line with September's inflation rate. Tax credits, however, face a squeeze, hitting more than 5million families and pushing 100,000 children into poverty. Other key measures in yesterday's statement included: Scrapping the 3p fuel duty rise planned for next January and limiting another rise in August to 3p; The largest ever increase – £5.35 a week – for the state pension; A £40billion scheme of taxpayer-backed loans to help struggling small businesses; A 10 per cent hike in the annual levy on bank profits; A £25billion programme of public works, with 500 new roads, railways and power stations; A £1.2billion cut in the foreign aid budget. Against the bleakest of economic backdrops, the Chancellor used his mini-Budget to confirm that he will have to borrow an extra £111billion between now and 2015 just to make ends meet. The Office for Budget Responsibility said economic growth had been badly hit by global inflation and the eurozone debt crisis, and slashed its growth forecast to 0.9 per cent for this year, down from 1.7 per cent, and just 0.7 per cent next year, down from 2.5 per cent. Quizzical: Labour leader Ed Miliband (left) and Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls listen to the Chancellor The House listened intently as Osborne laid out the challenges ahead for the economy That smashes a massive hole in the public finances. The OBR also predicted that public sector job losses, which it originally said would reach 400,00 by 2015, could hit 710,000 by 2016. Debt as a share of the economy will peak at 78 per cent in 2014/15, reaching more than £1.3trillion – or more than £20,000 for every man, woman and child. The OBR's forecasts are also predicated on an effective resolution of the eurozone crisis within the next two years, an outcome which many experts believe is optimistic in the extreme. The Chancellor disappointed some Right-wing Tories by refusing to respond by wielding the axe more sharply before the next election, instead announcing massive unspecified spending cuts to take place after 2015, a strategy for which he used to criticise Labour. The next Government will have to slash public spending by more than £8billion in 2015/16, rising to £15billion in 2016/17, to meet deficit targets – deeper cuts than will have been implemented in this Parliament. But the spread between UK government borrowing rates and those of Germany widened in our favour following the Chancellor's statement, a sign that the international markets were reassured. Shadow chancellor Ed Balls said the Government's economic strategy was 'in tatters' and the country had 'all of the pain and none of the gain' from Mr Osborne's austerity programme. But Labour's assault on the Government was undermined by Tony Blair, who admitted: 'Frankly, whatever government is in power, it is going to be pursuing a pretty tough programme at the moment.' Ryan Bourne, head of economic research at the Centre for Policy Studies, a Thatcherite think-tank, said: 'There are still many areas of Government expenditure that are a luxury for the economic circumstances that face us, and a hurricane from the continent could lead to a rapid decline in market confidence in our ability to pay our debts.' The dysfunction of our political system is now sapping confidence from businesses and families. It may be the single biggest hurdle standing in the way of our prosperity. Barack Obama said it himself in his first post-election press conference. Speaking at the White House on November 14, Obama said conversations with families, workers and small business owners along the campaign trail had left him convinced that average Americans deserved more from Washington. "When you talk to these folks," Obama said, "you say to yourself, 'Man, they deserve a better government than they've been getting.'" 2012 comes to a close, partisanship is slowing our economy, making our children unsafe and reducing our confidence in the future. In 2008, egregious behavior by bankers and regulators could be blamed for gutting the economy. In the 1970s, high union wages could be blamed for reducing the competitiveness of American industry. Today, our political dysfunction is our biggest economic and social liability. Example one: the fiscal cliff. After two months of absurd political posturing, the country is four days away from a wholly preventable economic body-blow that will stall a fragile recovery. The same dynamic that occurred last summer during the debt-ceiling fiasco is repeating itself. The failure to compromise on fiscal policy is eroding consumer confidence and slowing the economy just as growth begins to take hold. The problem is not that American companies and workers are uncompetitive. It is not that manufacturing jobs are flowing overseas. Those economic trends have largely played themselves out. It is a new dynamic: political deadlock handicapping our economy. Until or unless Congress actually does something, 2013 will be the year of tax increases. Big tax increases. The fiscal cliff is a bit of a misnomer, but when it comes to taxes, the metaphor is apt. If all of the tax cuts, credits, and deductions set to expire at year end do in fact expire, incomes will fall off a tax cliff. Median earners will have 4 percent less in take-home pay in 2013 than they otherwise would; households making a million dollars or more would have 11.4 percent less. You can see what a fully armed and operational tax cliff would mean for different earners in the chart below from the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. But not all tax cuts, credits, and deductions are created equal. Some hit much harder than others, and some hit different earners much harder than other earners. The chart below, again from the indispensable Tax Policy Center, breaks down which tax provisions are worth what to different earners. It's pretty crazy that nobody in Washington is fighting to keep the payroll tax cut.

Revelers in Times Square welcomed in 2013 with a spectacular display of fireworks and confetti as they watched the famous Waterford crystal ball make its annual decent to mark the new year. They were in good company, as world famous artists like Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber, and Psy performed at the Crossroads of the World. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg was joined by the Radio City Rockettes on Monday night to kick off the festivities, with a crowd of approximately one million spectators crammed into the neighborhood to witness the magic of the 108-year-old tradition. Tourists stood in Times Square for the better part of the day, braving the frigid New York City weather to spend New Year's Eve under the dazzling lights of the theater district in midtown Manhattan. However, the event is often avoided by native New Yorkers, who tend to favor quieter and warmer celebrations.

 

Bombshell: Taylor Swift performs her two hits in an uncharacteristically body-conscious ensemble, singing two songs before midnight

Putting on the hits: Taylor Swift, dressed in a tight-fitting red jacket and black leather pants, performed hits off of her latest album, including 'We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together'

Air time: An airborne Justin Bieber performs on Dick Clark's New Year's Rockin' Eve at CBS studios from Los Angeles

Reason to celebrate: Newly-engaged Sonja Babic, 30, of Texas, and National Guardsman John Cebak, 27, of Kentucky, share a kiss in Times Square at midnight

Annual tradition: Confetti is dropped on revelers at midnight during New Year celebrations

Release: Tons of confetti were released on the revelers in Times Square

Don't quit your day job: New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, center, joins the famous Radio City Rockettes in their signature high kick

Patriotic duty: Bloomberg, wearing a USA sweater, was joined by the Rockettes to press the switch triggering the famous ball to fall

Famous faces: Taylor Swift stands with New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg during New Year's celebrations

Magic moment: The numbers '2013' are illuminated atop One Times Square as revelers celebrate the New Year

Those braving the elements in Times Square had hope for a more peaceful and uplifting new year. 'With all the sadness in the country, we're looking for some good changes in 2013,' Laura Concannon, of Hingham, Massachusetts, told the Associated Press as she, her husband, Kevin, and his parents took in the scene in bustling Times Square on Monday. A blocks-long line of bundled-up revelers with New Year's hats and sunglasses boasting '2013' formed hours before the first ball drop in decades without Dick Clark, who died in April and was to be honored with a tribute concert and his name printed on pieces of confetti.

 

• Central Pacific Ocean island of Kiritimati (Christmas Island) first to usher in the New Year
• Sydney saw 2013 at 1pm GMT, with some 1.5 million people attending the city's events
• American Samoa will be the last place on Earth to herald in the New Year on Tuesday at 11am GMT
• The increasingly democratic Myanmar - also known as Burma - celebrated with its first ever public countdown

The first major celebration of 2013 has taken place with an extravagant and expensive firework display lighting up the skyline over the iconic Sydney Harbour Bridge. An incredible 7 tons of fireworks were fired into the night-sky as the city welcomed in the New Year with style. Elsewhere, extravagant displays lit up Hong Kong and Beijing while the increasingly democratic Myanmar - also known as Burma - joined the party for the first time in almost five decades.

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Fireworks explode over and around the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Sydney Opera House during New Year celebrations on January 1

Bright: The Sydney Harbour Bridge looks impressive surrounded by colourful fireworks

Colourful: Spectator boats in Sydney Harbour look on as the New Year's Eve fireworks erupt over the Sydney Harbour Bridge

Extravagant: Sydney's balmy summer night was lit up by 7 tons of fireworks which were fired from roof tops and barges, many cascading from the Sydney Harbour Bridge

Expensive: The firework display in Sydney cost 6.6 million Australian dollars. Asia welcomed the New Year on a grand scale, partying with renewed optimism despite the so-called fiscal cliff threatening to reverberate globally from the United States and the tattered economies of Europe, where the party was expected to be a bit more subdued. Celebrations were planned around the world, culminating with the crystal ball drop in New York City's Times Square. One million people are expected to cram into the area for the countdown. Global celebrations began in Sydney, where the balmy summer night was split by 7 tons of fireworks fired from roof tops and barges, many cascading from the Sydney Harbor Bridge, in a 6.6 million Australian dollar pyrotechnic extravaganza billed by organisers as the world's largest.

The battle that history forgot:Battle of Poitiers

 

Edward the Black Prince - Leeds City Square

The effigy and tomb of The Black Prince, Canterbury, England

Nouaille Maupertuis, Abbey The abbey that was there at the time of the Battle of Poitiers, 1356, is the group of buildings in the foreground which was subsequently fortified with a wall and towers and a moat.   The battle that history forgot: Sharpe creator Bernard Cornwell says the little-known victory at the Battle of Poitiers more than 600 years ago was one of the greatest military triumphs in British history The Battle of Poitiers was a major battle of the Hundred Years' War between England and France. The battle occurred on 19 September 1356 near Poitiers, France. Preceded by the Battle of Crécy in 1346, and followed by the Battle of Agincourt in 1415, it was the second of the three great English victories of the war. Edward, Prince of Wales (now better known as the Black Prince), the eldest son of King Edward III of England, began a great chevauchée on 8 August 1356. He conducted many scorched earth raids[3] northwards from the English base in Aquitaine, in an effort to bolster his troops in central France, as well as to raid and ravage the countryside. His forces met little resistance, burning numerous towns to the ground and living off the land, until they reached the Loire River at Tours. They were unable to take the castle or burn the town due to a heavy downpour. This delay allowed John II, King of France, to attempt to catch Edward's army. The King, who had been besieging Breteuil in Normandy arranged the bulk of his army at Chartres to the north of the besieged Tours, dismissing approximately 15,000–20,000 of his lower-quality infantry to increase the speed of his forces.Negotiations prior to the Battle of Poitiers There were negotiations before the battle of Poitiers that are recorded in the writings of the life of Sir John Chandos. He records the final moments of a meeting of both sides in an effort to avoid the bloody conflict at Poitiers. The extraordinary narrative occurred just before that battle and reads as follows: ... The conference attended by the King of France, Sir John Chandos, and many other prominent people of the period, The King (of France), to prolong the matter and to put off the battle, assembled and brought together all the barons of both sides. Of speech there he (the King) made no stint. There came the Count of Tancarville, and, as the list says, the Archbishop of Sens (Guillaume de Melun) was there, he of Taurus, of great discretion, Charny, Bouciquaut, and Clermont; all these went there for the council of the King of France. On the other side there came gladly the Earl of Warwick, the hoary-headed (white or grey headed) Earl of Suffolk was there, and Bartholomew de Burghersh, most privy to the Prince, and Audeley and Chandos, who at that time were of great repute. There they held their parliament, and each one spoke his mind. But their counsel I cannot relate, yet I know well, in very truth, as I hear in my record, that they could not be agreed, wherefore each one of them began to depart. Then said the prophetic words of Geoffroi de Charny: 'Lords,' quoth he, 'since so it is that this treaty pleases you no more, I make offer that we fight you, a hundred against a hundred, choosing each one from his own side; and know well, whichever hundred be discomfited, all the others, know for sure, shall quit this field and let the quarrel be. I think that it will be best so, and that God will be gracious to us if the battle be avoided in which so many valiant men will be slain.[5] Nobles and men-at-arms who fought with the Black Prince Jean Froissart states as follows: Now will I name some of the principal lords and knights (men-at-arms) that were there with the prince: the earl of Warwick, the earl of Suffolk, the earl of Salisbury, the earl of Oxford, the lord Raynold Cobham, the lord Spencer, the lord James Audley, the lord Peter his brother, the lord Berkeley, the lord Basset, the lord Warin, the lord Delaware, the lord Manne, the lord Willoughby, the lord Bartholomew de Burghersh, the lord of Felton, the lord Richard of Pembroke, the lord Stephen of Cosington, the lord Bradetane and other Englishmen; and of Gascon there was the lord of Pommiers, the lord of Languiran, the captal of Buch, the lord John of Caumont, the lord de Lesparre, the lord of Rauzan, the lord of Condon, the lord of Montferrand, the lord of Landiras, the lord Soudic of Latrau and other (men-at-arms) that I cannot name; and of Hainowes the lord Eustace d'Aubrecicourt, the lord John of Ghistelles, and two other strangers, the lord Daniel Pasele and the lord Denis of Amposta, a fortress in Catalonia.[6] Edward le Despencer, 1st Baron le Despencer also fought at Poitiers under The Black Prince.[7] Sir Thomas Felton fought not only at Poitiers but also at the Battle of Crécy.[8] One of the chief commanders at both Crécy and Poitiers was John de Vere, Earl of Oxford, mentioned above.[9] Another account states that John of Ghistelles perished at the Battle of Crécy. [edit]Nobles and men-at-arms who fought with King Jean II at, or just prior to, the battle Froissart describes, with less specificity in this passage, some of the nobles that were assembled at, or just prior to the Battle: ... the Englishmen were coasted by certain expert knights of France, who always made report to the king what the Englishmen did. Then the king came to the Haye in Touraine and his men had passed the river of Loire, some at the bridge of Orléans and some at Meung, at Saumur, at Blois, and at Tours and whereas they might: they were in number a twenty thousand men of arms beside other; there were a twenty-six dukes and earls (Counts) and more than sixscore banners, and the four sons of the king, who were but young, the duke Charles of Normandy, the lord Louis, that was from thenceforth duke of Anjou, and the lord John duke of Berry, and the lord Philip, who was after duke of Burgoyne.[10] The French army also included a contingent of Scots commanded by Sir William Douglas.[11] Douglas fought in the King's own Battle, but when the fight seemed over Douglas was dragged by his men from the melee. Froissart states that "... the Earl Douglas of Scotland, who fought a season valiantly, but when he saw the discomfiture he departed and saved himself; for in no wise would he be taken by the Englishmen, he would rather there be slain".[12] Others who were either killed or captured at the actual Battle were as follows: King Jean II; Prince Philip (youngest son and progenitor of the House of Valois-Burgundy), Geoffroi de Charny, carrier of theOriflamme, Peter I, Duke of Bourbon, Walter VI, Count of Brienne and Constable of France, Jean de Clermont, Marshal of France, Arnoul d'Audrehem, the Count of Eu, the Count of Marche and Ponthieu Jacques de Bourbon taken prisoner at the Battle and died 1361, the Count of Étampes, the Count of Tancarville, the Count of Dammartin, the Count of Joinville, Guillaume de Melun, Archbishop of Sens.[13][14] [edit]The battle The Battle of Poitiers At the beginning of the battle, the English removed their baggage train leading the French to think they were about to retreat which provoked a hasty charge by the French knights against the archers.[15] According to Froissart, the English attacked the enemy, especially the horses, with a shower of arrows. Froissart also writes that the French armour was invulnerable to the English arrows, that the arrowheads either skidded off the armour or shattered on impact. English history of the battle disputes this, as some claim that the narrow bodkin point arrows they used have been proven capable of penetrating most plate armour of that time. While tests have been done to support this with fixed pieces of flat metal, the result is inconclusive with respect to the curved armour of the period.[citation needed] Given the following actions of the archers, it seems likely Froissart was correct. The armour on the horses was weaker on the sides and back, so the archers moved to the sides of the cavalry and shot the horses in the flanks. This was a popular method of stopping a cavalry charge, as a falling horse often destroyed the cohesion of the enemy's line. The results were devastating.[16][17] The Dauphin attacked Salisbury and pressed his advance in spite of heavy shot by the English archers and complications of running into the retreatingvanguard of Clermont's force. Green suggests that the Dauphin had thousands of troops with him in this phase of the attack. He advanced to the English lines but ultimately fell back. The French were unable to penetrate the protective hedge the English were using. This phase of the attack lasted about two hours.[18] This cavalry attack was followed by infantry attack. The Dauphin's infantry engaged in heavy fighting, but withdrew to regroup. The next wave of infantry under Orléans, seeing that the Dauphin's men were not attacking, turned back and panicked. This stranded the forces led by the King himself. This was a formidable fighting force, and the English archers were running very low on arrows; the archers joined the infantry in the fight and some of both groups mounted horses to form an improvised cavalry. At about this time, King John sent two sons from the battlefield. His youngest son, Philip, stayed with him and fought at his side in the final phase of the battle. When the Dauphin and other sons withdrew, the duke of Orléans also withdrew. Combat was hard, but the Black Prince still had a mobile reserve hidden in the woods, which was able to circle around and attack the French in the flank and rear. The French were fearful of encirclement and attempted to flee. King John was captured with his immediate entourage only after a memorable resistance.[19] Amongst the notable captured or killed according to Froissart were: King John II of France, captured. Prince Philip, the King's youngest son and progenitor of the House of Valois-Burgundy, captured Peter I, Duke of Bourbon, killed. Walter VI, Count of Brienne and Constable of France, killed. Jean de Clermont, Marshal of France, killed Arnoul d'Audrehem, Marshal of France, captured. The Count of Eu, wounded and captured. The Count of Marche and Ponthieu, captured. The Count of Étampes, captured. The Count of Tancarville, captured. The Count of Dammartin, captured. The Count of Joinville, captured. Guillaume de Melun, Archbishop of Sens, captured Geoffroi de Charny, carrier of the Oriflamme, killed. Pre-battle manoeuvres Map of the Battle [edit]The capture of the French king Froissart again gives us a vivid description of the capture of King Jean II and his youngest son in this passage: " ... So many Englishmen and Gascons came to that part, that perforce they opened the king's battle, so that the Frenchmen were so mingled among their enemies that sometime there was five men upon one gentleman. There was taken the lord of Pompadour and the lord Bartholomew de Burghersh, and there was slain sir Geoffrey of Charny with the king's banner in his hands: also the lord Raynold Cobham slew the earl of Dammartin. Then there was a great press to take the king, and such as knew him cried, ' Sir, yield you, or else ye are but dead.' There was a knight of Saint Omer's, retained in wages with the king of England, called sir Denis Morbeke, who had served the Englishmen five year before, because in his youth he had forfeited the realm of France for a murder that he did at Saint-Omer's. It happened so well for him, that he was next to the king when they were about to take him: he stept forth into the press, and by strength of his body and arms he came to the French king and said in good French, 'Sir, yield you.' The king beheld the knight and said: 'To whom shall I yield me? Where is my cousin the prince of Wales? If I might see him, I would speak with him.' Denis answered and said: 'Sir, he is not here; but yield you to me and I shall bring you to him.' 'Who be you?' quoth the king. 'Sir,' quoth he, 'I am Denis of Morbeke, a knight of Artois; but I serve the king of England because I am banished from the realm of France and I have forfeited all that I had there.' Then the king gave him his right gauntlet, saying, 'I yield me to you.'" ...[20] [edit]Aftermath of the battle Jean II, the Good, being captured. As Edward, the Black Prince, wrote shortly afterward in a letter to the people of London: "It was agreed that we should take our way, flanking them, in such a manner that if they wished for battle or to draw towards us, in a place not very much to our disadvantage, we should be the first ... the enemy was discomfited, and the king was taken, and his son; and a great number of other great people were both taken and slain[.]"[21] See also Ransom of King John II of France. [edit]Aftermath in France Jean de Venette, a Carmelite friar and medieval chronicler vividly describes the chaos in France which he states he himself witnessed, after the time of this Battle.[22] He states: ...From that time on all went wrong with the Kingdom and the state was undone. Thieves and robbers rose up everywhere in the land. The nobles despised and hated all others and took no thought for the mutual usefulness and profit of lord and men. They subjected and despoiled the peasants and the men of the villages. In no wise did they defend their country from enemies. Rather did they trample it underfoot, robbing and pillaging the peasants' goods.At dawn on September 19, 1356, an English army found itself trapped and facing battle outside the city of Poitiers in central France. The soldiers were so short of water they had given their horses wine to drink just to keep the beasts alive. Even drunken horses were better than dead ones. There was a river close by, but it was impossible to carry enough water for 6,000 men and thousands of horses up the steep hill to the position where the English were trapped. The enemy, the army of France, was almost twice as strong. But that would not stop the English force from fighting its way to one of the greatest victories in our military history. It has always seemed strange to me that we remember the Battle of Crecy and we celebrate the Battle of Agincourt, but most people seem to have forgotten Poitiers — the other great victory in the Hundred Years War — yet it was just as remarkable a triumph. In some ways, even more so. Savage: A 14th century illustration shows the Battle of Poitiers, between the French and the English in 1356 At Agincourt, the English were outnumbered at least five to one, but the fighting at Poitiers was much harder. For the French nobles were desperate to drive their hated foe from the land and back across the Channel after years of bloody conquest. Their king, Jean II, was a little more circumspect, for he could remember the crushing defeat the English had inflicted at Crecy in northern France ten years earlier. On that occasion, a 16-year-old Edward of Woodstock, the Prince of Wales — son of Edward III — had made a name for himself.   Since then, the French had tended to avoid battle because they feared the deadly accuracy of the English longbowmen. So they shut themselves behind stone walls in castles and fortified towns. The English response was to mount raids known as chevauchees. The army advanced slowly across the countryside; killing, pillaging, raping. In 1355, the prince had led one such assault across southern France, from the English base at Bordeaux to the Mediterranean and back. They had captured castles and towns, burned villages, and taken vast amounts of plunder in a relentless expedition. Highlighting: We ought to remember Poitiers, says Bernard Cornwell, creator of Captain Richard Sharpe Such a chevauchee achieved three things: it enriched the invaders, it weakened the enemy’s economy and so reduced the amount he could tax his subjects, and finally, it might, just might, tempt the enemy to come out of their castles and face the English in open battle. That is what happened in 1356 when the Prince of Wales, by then an accomplished commander in his mid-20s, struck north out of Gascony, which was English territory, and aimed his rapacious army at the heartland of France, a dagger thrust towards Paris. The plan was to join up with another English army coming out of Normandy, but that plan failed when violent weather forced the prince to retreat back to Gascony. The French king assembled his army and followed. The English were travel-weary, the French were fresh. The English were weighed down by wagonloads of plunder, and so King Jean II’s army slowly overtook the prince’s army until, on September 17, the two armies were so close that a battle seemed unavoidable. The prince, knowing the French were close, had taken refuge on a high, wooded ridge close to the village of Nouaille. It was a strong position. An enemy wanting to attack him would need to come uphill through tangling vineyards and, more importantly, the English had massed behind a thick hedge, which represented a fearsome obstacle for any attacker. The prince — who came to be known long after his death as the Black Prince — may have taken up a strong position, but the evidence still suggests he would have preferred to avoid battle because of his inferior numbers. But the French were also wary of those devastating English longbows that unleashed ash-shafted, steel-tipped arrows with fearsome accuracy. The French crossbowmen were no match. At Crecy, the French had attacked on horseback and the English arrows had ripped into the stallions, causing dreadful pain, death and horror. So at Poitiers, the French resolved to fight largely on foot, because a man’s armour would be more likely to stop the arrows. And it was on the morning of September 19 that the French king overcame his doubts and ordered an attack. Seeking to protect his plunder, the Prince had ordered part of his army and his baggage train to cross the river and march away southwards. But the river crossing went wrong, the planned English retreat was stalled and the French soon saw the commotion in the valley. They sent horsemen to attack the English left wing, and ordered an uphill advance on the main position. The Battle of Poitiers had begun. The Chandos Herald, the poem written about the life of the Black Prince, describes it thus: ‘Then began the shouting, and noise and clamour raised and the armies began to draw near. Then on both sides they began to shoot; there were many a creature who that day was brought to his end.’ The first French attacks were by cavalry mounted on thundering warhorses that would have made the ground shake as they thundered across the field — a terrifying sight for the line of Englishmen waiting to receive them. The French had collected their most heavily armoured stallions, ridden by plate-armoured men, who made their charges with the intention of shattering the archers on the English wings. For a time, it worked. The horses were hung with leather and mail, their faces guarded by plate armour, but only the fronts of the beasts were so protected. As soon as the archers realised the animals’ flanks and rears were unarmoured, they moved to the side and shot the attackers into bloody ruin — as scores of horses collapsed under their masters in floundering terror. English men-at-arms moved into the chaos and slaughtered fallen riders. And it was a gruesome business. Death came through horrific injuries inflicted by lead-weighted maces and battle-axes, hammers, spikes, poles and knives. But this was no more than a setback for the French, whose main attack did not depend on the horsemen. It was made by armoured men advancing on foot, and we know that this attack reached the prince’s line, and that there was savage hand-to-hand fighting that lasted some hours while exhausted men slashed, stabbed and wrestled for their lives. That French attack on foot was led by the dauphin — the king’s heir — but it failed to break the disciplined English line. Eventually the king, seeing that his eldest son’s attack had not broken the enemy, ordered the dauphin to retreat to nearby Poitiers, where he would be safe from capture. But King Jean himself was in no mood to abandon the struggle. He marched his men up the slope and through gaps in the thick hedge, where they flung themselves on to the exhausted English line. The close fighting began again, but the English prince was a master strategist, and chose this moment to unleash a surprise attack that would turn the tide decisively in his favour. He sent about 200 horsemen around the rear of the French army — led by a Gascon lord but including some English archers. They managed to reach the enemy’s rear without being detected, and then they charged. When they slammed into the back of the king’s force of infantry, the French panicked and fled. Hundreds of English soldiers then mounted their horses and followed, and in a nearby field — called the Champ d’Alexandre — the flower of French chivalry was cut down. It was a slaughteryard, and at its end 2,500 were dead, and half the great lords of France were among the 3,000 prisoners taken by the English, as was King Jean himself. He was forcibly taken to London and paraded through the streets before being thrown in the Tower, to show what Englishmen had achieved near Poitiers on that September day in 1356. The tale of the Black Prince’s victory is a magnificent story, unfairly forgotten, but worth remembering. Because there was a battle, long ago, and great deeds were done.

Knight of the Hundred Years War The closest interpretation of a mid-to-late fourteenth century knight. The surcoat shortened progressively through the second quarter of the fourteenth century to the short jupon. This style of garment was just coming into vogue at the Battle of Crecy (1346) and Poitiers (1356).   This is transition armor, showing the progression from mail to plate defense. To be completely accurate THEY should be wearing some type of rudimentary brigandine or coat of plates over the mail haubergon. The articulating arm and leg armor evolved sometime by the end of the 1350s. From about 1320 to 1350 seperately attached plates continued to be added over the sleeve of the mail hauberk which shortened to a three-quarter length. It appears that in the decade between 1350 to 1360 these seperate vambraces, elbow cops, and rear-guards became rivetted together on closely articulating lames that flexed at the elbow. Leg armor followed a similar evolution. Only rich knights would have such highly developed armor by the 1360s and it was usually forged in Italy. The older style of seperately attached plates probably predominated well into the 1370s to 1380s and remained the style in German kingdoms.   Combatants: An army of English and Gascons against the French and their allies. Generals: The Black Prince against King John I of France. Size of the armies: The Black Prince’s army numbered some 7,000 knights, men-at-arms and archers. Numbers in the French army are uncertain but were probably around 35,000, although Froissart gives the size of the French army as 60,000. The French army comprised a contingent of Scots commanded by Sir William Douglas. Uniforms, arms and equipment: Depending upon wealth and rank a mounted knight of the period wore jointed steel plate armour incorporating back and breast plates, a visored bascinet helmet and steel plated gauntlets with spikes on the back, the legs and feet protected by steel greaves and boots, called jambs. Weapons carried were a lance, shield, sword and dagger. Over the armour a knight wore a jupon or surcoat emblazoned with his arms and an ornate girdle. The weapon of the English and Welsh archers was a six foot yew bow discharging a feathered arrow of a cloth metre. The rate of fire was up to an arrow every 5 seconds. For close quarter fighting the archers used hammers or daggers. Winner: The English and Gascons decisively won the battle. The Battle of Poitiers from a contemporary account Account: Edward III, King of England, began the Hundred Years War, claiming the throne of France on the death of King Philip IV in 1337. The war finally ended in the middle of the 15th Century with the eviction of the English from France, other than Calais, and the formal abandonment by the English monarchs of their claims to French territory. The war began well for Edward III with the decisive English victories at Sluys in 1340 and Creçy in 1346 and the capture of Calais in 1347. In the late 1340s the plague epidemic, called the Black Death, decimated the populations of France and England, bringing military operations to a halt; one of the plague’s victims being the French king Philip VI. Battle of Poitiers In 1355 King Edward III again planned for an invasion of France. His son, Edward the Black Prince, now an experienced soldier 26 years of age, landed at Bordeaux in Western France and led his army on a march through Southern France to Carcassonne. Unable to take the walled city, the Black Prince returned to Bordeaux. In early 1356 the Duke of Lancaster landed with a second force in Normandy and began to advance south. Edward III was engaged in fighting in Scotland. King John of France surrendering himself at the Battle of Poitiers The new king of France, John I, led an army against Lancaster forcing him to withdraw towards the coast. King John then turned to attack the Black Prince, who was advancing north east towards the Loire pillaging the countryside as he went. In early September 1356 King John reached the Loire with his large army, just as the Black Prince turned back towards Bordeaux. The French army marched hard and overtook the unsuspecting English force at Poitiers on Sunday 18th September 1356. The local prelate, Cardinal Talleyrand de Périgord, attempted to broker terms of settlement between the two armies; but the Black Prince’s offer of handing over all the booty he had taken on his “chevauchée” and maintaining a truce for 7 years was unacceptable to King John who considered the English would have little chance against his overwhelming army, and the French demand that the Black Prince surrender himself and his army was unacceptable to the English. The two armies prepared for battle. The English army was an experienced force; many of the archers veterans of Creçy, ten years before, and the Gascon men-at-arms commanded by Sir John Chandos, Sir James Audley and Captal de Buche, all old soldiers. The Black Prince arranged his force in a defensive position among the hedges and orchards of the area, his front line of archers disposed behind a particularly prominent thick hedge through which the road ran at right angles. Edward, the Black Prince, commander of the English army at the Battle of Poitiers King John was advised by his Scottish commander, Sir William Douglas, that the French attack should be delivered on foot, horses being particularly vulnerable to English archery, the arrows fired with a high trajectory falling on the unprotected necks and backs of the mounts. King John took this advice, his army in the main leaving its horses with the baggage and forming up on foot. The French attack began in the early morning of Monday 19th September 1356 with a mounted charge by a forlorn hope of 300 German knights commanded by two Marshals of France; Barons Clermont and Audrehem. The force reached a gallop, closing in to charge down the road into the centre of the English position. The attack was a disaster, with those knights not shot down by the English archers dragged from their horses and killed or secured as prisoners for later ransom. The rest of the French army now began its ponderous advance on foot, in accordance with Douglas’ advice, arrayed in three divisions; the first led by the Dauphin Charles (the son of the King), the second by the Duc D’Orleans and the third, the largest, by the King himself. The first division reached the English line exhausted by its long march in heavy equipment, much harassed by the arrow fire of the English archers. The Black Prince’s soldiers, Gascon men-at-arms and English and Welsh archers, rushed forward to engage the French, pushing through the hedgerow and spilling round the flanks to attack the French in the rear. After a short savage fight the Dauphin’s division broke and retreated, blundering into the division of the Duc D’Orleans marching up behind, both divisions falling back in confusion. The Battle of Poitiers For more details on a picture and how to buy it, click on the image. The final division of the French army, commanded by the king himself, was the strongest and best controlled. The three divisions coalesced and resumed the advance against the English, a formidable mass of walking knights and men-at-arms. Thinking that the retreat of the first two divisions marked the end of the battle, the Black Prince had ordered a force of knights commanded by the Gascon, Captal de Buche, to mount and pursue the French. Chandos urged the Prince to launch this mounted force on the main body of the French army. The Black Prince seized on Chandos’ idea and ordered all the knights and men-at-arms to mount for the charge. The horses were ordered up from the rear; in the meantime Captal de Buch’s men, already mounted, were ordered to advance around the French flank to the right. As the French army toiled up to the hedgerow the English force broke through the hedge and struck the French like a thunderbolt, the impetus of the charge taking the mounted knights and men-at-arms right into the French line. Simultaneously Captal de Buch’s Gascons charged in on the French flank. The English and Welsh archers left their bows and ran forward to join the fight, brandishing their daggers and fighting hammers. The French army broke up, many leaving the field, while the more stalwart knights fought hard in isolated groups. A mass of fugitives made for Poitiers pursued by the mounted Gascons to be slaughtered outside the closed city gates. King John found himself alone with his 14 years old younger son Philip fighting an overwhelming force of Gascons and English. Eventually the king agreed to surrender. The battle won, the English army gave itself up to pillaging the vanquished French knights and the lavish French camp. Casualties: In his dispatch to King Edward III, his father, the Black Prince stated that the French dead amounted to 3,000 while only 40 of his troops had been killed. It is likely that the English casualties were higher. Among the French prisoners were King John, his son Philip, 17 great lords, 13 counts, 5 viscounts and a hundred other knights of significance. Follow-up: On the night of the battle the Black Prince entertained the King of France and his son to dinner and the next day the English army resumed its march to Bordeaux. The effect of the defeat on France and the loss of the King to captivity was devastating, leaving the country in the hands of the Dauphin Charles, escaped from the ruins of his division at Poitiers. Charles faced immediate revolts across the kingdom as he attempted to raise money to continue the war and ransom his father. The release of King John proved difficult to negotiate as Edward III sought to extract more and more onerous terms from the French. Meanwhile the war continued to the misery of the wretched inhabitants of France. King John was released in November 1361 against other hostages. Due to the default of one of those hostages John returned to London and died there in 1364. Regimental anecdotes and traditions: King John actually surrendered to a French knight, Sir Denis de Morbeque, who took him to the Prince of Wales with the Earl of Warwick. Poitiers was the second great battle won by the English yew bow, although in this case it was the threat of the arrow barrage that caused the French to launch the ill-judged advance on foot thereby exposing them to the English/Gascon mounted charge that won the battle. Edward Plantagenet: The Black Prince Edward, Prince of Wales (15 June 1330 – 8 June 1376) was called Edward of Woodstock in his early life, after his birthplace, and has, more recently, been popularly known as The Black Prince. He was the eldest son of King Edward III of England and Philippa of Hainault, and father to King Richard II of England. Edward, an exceptional military leader and popular during his life, died one year before his father and thus never ruled as king (becoming the first English Prince of Wales to suffer that fate). The throne passed instead to his son Richard, a minor, upon the death of Edward III. Early life Edward was born on 15 June 1330 at Woodstock Palace in Oxfordshire. Edward was created Earl of Chester in 1333, Duke of Cornwall in 1337 (the first creation of an English duke) and finally invested as Prince of Wales in 1343. In England Edward served as a symbolic regent for periods in 1339, 1340, and 1342 while Edward III was on campaign. He was expected to attend all council meetings, and he performed the negotiations with the papacy about the war in 1337. Edward had been raised with his cousin Joan, "The Fair Maid of Kent."[1] Edward gained Innocent VI's papal permission and absolution for this marriage to a blood-relative (as had Edward III when marrying Philippa of Hainaut, being her second cousin) and married Joan in 10 October 1361 at Windsor Castle, prompting some controversy, mainly because of Joan's chequered marital history and the fact that marriage to an Englishwoman wasted an opportunity to form an alliance with a foreign power. When in England, Edward's chief residence was at Wallingford Castle in Berkshire (now Oxfordshire). He served as the king's representative in Aquitaine, where he and Joan kept a court which was considered among the most brilliant of the time. It was the resort of exiled kings, like James of Mallorca and Pedro of Castile. Pedro, thrust from his throne by his illegitimate brother, Henry of Trastámara, offered Edward the lordship of Biscay in 1367, in return for the Black Prince's aid in recovering his throne. Edward was successful in the Battle of Nájera in which he soundly defeated the combined French and Spanish forces led by Bertrand du Guesclin. During this period, he fathered two sons: Edward (27 January 1365 – 1372), who died at the age of 6; and Richard, born in 1367 and often called Richard of Bordeaux for his place of birth, who would later rule as Richard II of England. He had at least two illegitimate sons, both born before his marriage: Sir Roger Clarendon and Sir John Sounder.[2] The Black Prince returned to England in January 1371 and died a few years later after a long wasting illness that may have been cancer. Edward lived in a century of decline for the knightly ideal of chivalry. The formation of the Order of the Garter, an English royal order of which Edward was a founding member, signified a shift towards patriotism and away from the crusader mentality that characterized England in the previous two centuries. Edward's stance in this evolution is seemingly somewhat divided. Edward displayed obedience to typical chivalric obligations through his pious contributions to Canterbury Cathedral throughout his life. On one hand, after capturing John the Good, king of France, and his youngest son at Poitiers, he treated them with great respect, at one point giving John leave to return home, and reportedly praying with John at Canterbury Cathedral. Notably, he also allowed a day for preparations before the Battle of Poitiers so that the two sides could discuss the coming battle with one another, and so that the Cardinal of Perigord could plead for peace. Though not agreeing with knightly charges on the battlefield, he also was devoted to tournament jousting. On the other hand, his chivalric tendencies were overridden by pragmatism on many occasions. The Black Prince's repeated use of the chevauchée strategy (burning and pillaging towns and farms) was not in keeping with contemporary notions of chivalry, but it was quite effective in accomplishing the goals of his campaigns and weakening the unity and economy of France. On the battlefield, pragmatism over chivalry is also demonstrated via the massed use of infantry strongholds, dismounted men at arms, longbowmen, and flank attacks (a revolutionary practice in such a chivalric age). Moreover, he was exceptionally harsh toward and contemptuous of lower classes in society, as indicated by the heavy taxes he levied as Prince of Aquitaine and by the massacres he perpetrated at Limoges and Caen. Edward's behaviour was typical of an increasing number of English knights and nobles during the late Middle Ages who paid less and less attention to the high ideal of chivalry, which would soon influence other countries. The 1345 Flanders Campaign on the Northern Front, which was of little significance and ended after three weeks when one of Edward's allies was murdered. The Crécy Campaign on the Northern Front, which crippled the French army for 10 years, allowing the siege of Calais to occur with little conventional resistance before the plague set in. Even when France's army did recover, the forces they deployed were about a quarter of that deployed at Crecy (as shown at Poitiers). Normandy came virtually under English control, but a decision was made to focus on northern France, leaving Normandy under the control of England's vassal allies instead. The Siege of Calais on the Northern Front, during which the inhabitants suffered worst and were reduced to eating dogs and rats.[3] The siege gave the English personal and vassal control over northern France before the temporary peace due to the Black Death. The Calais counter-offensive on the Northern Front, after which Calais remained in English hands. Les Espagnols sur Mer or the Battle of Winchelsea on the English Channel Front, which was a Pyrrhic victory of little significance beyond preventing Spanish raids on Essex. The Great Raid of 1355 on the Aquitaine–Languedoc Front, which crippled southern France economically, and provoked resentment of the French throne among French peasantry. The raid also 'cushioned' the area for conquest, opened up alliances with neighbours in Aquitaine of which that with Charles the Bad of Navarre is most notable, and caused many regions to move towards autonomy from France, as France was not as united as England. The Aquitaine Conquests on the Aquitaine Front, which brought much firmer control in Aquitaine, much land for resources and many people to fight for Edward. The Poitiers Campaign on the Aquitaine-Loire Front, which crippled the French Army for the next 13 years, causing the anarchy and chaos which would inevitably cause the Treaty of Bretigney to be signed in 1360. Following this campaign, there was no French Army leader, there were challenges towards Charles the Wise, and more aristocrats were killed at Crécy and Poitiers than those lost to the Black Death. The Reims Campaign, following which peace was finally achieved with the Treaty of Bretigny. But, on the same terms, England was left with about a third of France rather than a little under half which they would have received through the Treaty of London. This is due to the failure to take Reims which led to the need for a safe passage out of France. As a result, a lesser treaty was agreed to and Edward III was obliged to drop his claims to the French throne. France was still forced to pay a huge ransom of around four times France's gross annual domestic product for John the Good. The ransom paid was, however, a little short of that demanded by the English, and John the Good was not returned to the French. Thus, this campaign yielded mixed results, but was mostly positive for Edward. One must also remember Edward III never actually dropped his claim to the throne, and that about half of France was controlled by the English anyway through many vassals. The Najera Campaign on the Castilian Front, during which Pedro the Cruel was temporarily saved from a coup, thus confirming Castilian Spanish dedication to the Prince's cause. Later, however, Pedro was murdered. As a result of Pedro's murder, the money the prince put into the war effort became pointless, and Edward was effectively bankrupt. This forced heavy taxes to be levied in Aquitaine to relieve Edward's financial troubles, leading to a vicious cycle of resentment in Aquitaine and vicious repression of this resentment by Edward. Charles the Wise, king of France, was able to take advantage of the resentment against Edward in Aquitaine. However, the prince temporarily became the Lord of Biscay. The Siege of Limoges in 1370 on the Aquitaine Front, after which the Black Prince was obliged to leave his post for his sickness and financial issues, but also because of the cruelty of the siege, which saw the massacre of some 3,000 residents according to the chronicler Froissart. Without the Prince, the English war effort against Charles the Wise and Bertrand Du Guesclin was doomed. The Prince's brother John of Gaunt was not interested with the war in France, being more interested in the war of succession in Spain. King Edward III and the prince sail from Sandwich with 400 ships, carrying 4,000 men at arms and 10,000 archers for France, but after six weeks of bad weather and being blown off course they are driven back to England. He requested to be buried in the crypt of Canterbury Cathedral rather than next to the shrine, and a chapel was prepared there as a chantry for him and his wife Joan (this is now the French Protestant Chapel, and contains ceiling bosses of her face and of their coats of arms). However, this was overruled after his death and he was buried on the south side of the shrine of Thomas Becket behind the quire. His tomb consists of a bronze effigy beneath a tester depicting the Holy Trinity, with his heraldic achievements hung over the tester. The achievements have now been replaced by replicas, though the originals can still be seen nearby, and the tester was restored in 2006. Although Edward is almost always now called the "Black Prince", there is no record of this name being used during his lifetime. He was instead known as Edward of Woodstock, after his place of birth. The "Black Prince" sobriquet "is first found in writing in Richard Grafton's "Chronicle of England" (1568). [4] Its origin is uncertain; it is usually considered to be derived from an ornate black cuirass presented to the young prince by Edward III at the Battle of Crécy. In fact, this nickname comes more than probably from his "shield of peace", his coat of arms used during tournaments, which is represented around his effigy at Canterbury. This coat of arms is black with three white ostrich feathers. It is possible that the name was first coined by French chroniclers in reference to the ruinous military defeats he had inflicted on France or his cruelty in these. Also possible is the idea that Edward garnered the nickname from his explosive temper; the legendary Angevin temper being associated with his family's line since Geoffrey d'Anjou.

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